Sigmoid Curves, or Trump's Problem with Progress
DiscussionsTrump has been cancelling wind farms, penalising EVs and supporting gas vehicles. Since it's probably pointless arguing with a Trump supporter about global warming, I thought about technical innovation instead. As Charles Handy discussed, the Sigmoid Curve models growth in any constrained system. Computing power famously followed Moore's Law (doubling in power every two years) for decades, so that S-Curve had a long, steep growth phase. Swanson's Law observes that solar panels are currently dropping in price by roughly 20% with every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. Electric vehicle batteries appear to drop in price by around 28% for every doubling of units produced.
Where would you, as a person of common sense, or even as a hard-headed Trump supporter, prefer to focus your national investment - in industries and technologies that have long peaked in terms of economies of scale, or in those which are still racing towards new economic tipping points?
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